预测未来的10条准则

1. Data matters.

We humans are drawn to anecdotes and illustrations, but looks can be deceiving. Always base your forecasts on data, not qualitative arguments. Euclid’s Elements was one of the earliest texts on geometry, yet none of its oldest extant fragments include a single drawing.

1. Torture the data until it confesses, but don’t frame the data to the story. The data-mining trap is easy to fall into.
2. Start with base rates. The assumption that nothing changes and that an event is as likely in the future as it was in the past is a good starting point, but not the end point. Adjust this base rate with the information you have at the moment.

2. Don’t make extreme forecasts.

Predicting the next financial crisis will make you famous if you do it at the right time. It will cost you money and reputation at all others. Remember that there are only two kinds of forecasts: Lucky and wrong.

3. Reversion to the mean is a powerful force.

In economics as well as politics, extremes cannot survive for long. People trend toward average, and competitive forces in business lead to mean reversion.

4. We are creatures of habit.

If something has worked in the past, people will keep doing it almost forever. This introduces long-lasting trends. Don’t expect them to change quickly even with mean reversion. It is incredible how long a broken system can survive. Just think of Japan.

5. We rarely fall off a cliff.

People often change their habits in the face of a looming catastrophe. But for that behavioral change to occur, the catastrophe must be salient, the outcome certain, and the solution simple.

6. A full stomach does not riot.

Revolutions and uprisings rarely occur among people who are well fed and feel relatively safe. A lack of personal freedom is not enough to spark insurrections, but a lack of food or water or widespread injustice all are. The Tiananmen Square protests in China were triggered by higher food prices. So too was the Arab Spring.

7. The first goal of political and business leaders is to stay in power.

Viewed through that lens, many actions can easily be predicted.

8. The second goal of political and business leaders is to get rich.

Combined with the previous rule, this explains about 90% of all behavior.

9. Remember Occam’s razor.

The simplest explanation is the most likely to be correct. Ignore conspiracy theories.

10. Don’t follow rules blindly.

This applies to these rules as well as all others.